Five days to go, and pretty much the entire hockey world is all deadline, all the time. While we overhype the deadline every year, this season really does feel different. I can’t remember many previous years where it felt like such a wide range of outcomes was in play, from a week full of big names being moved and shaking up races to a quiet week that feels like a total bust and ends with James Duthie quietly playing solitaire on live TV for six hours.

History tells us that the next few days will play out more like the second option than the first, but for now, a lot of scenarios are in play. Here are the five I’m most interested in.

Bonus five: Deadline-week names I’m watching

5. Erik Karlsson — This was originally going to be the Seth Jones spot, where I explained how his contract was too onerous to be moved. Whoops. OK, so if a $9.5 million defenseman can be traded, what about $11.5 million? It feels like a long shot, but after a reasonably solid showing at the 4 Nations, the Penguins should be working the phones to see if there’s a way to make it happen.

4. Brayden Schenn — Just because he seems to be this year’s traditional guy whose reported asking price seems wildly high. That often means a team is floating those rumors in an attempt to create a market, and you can’t blame a GM for trying. But if Doug Armstrong can get a package like this one that includes a first and a top prospect in his penultimate deadline as Blues GM, it will make for a nice parting gift. I’ll believe it when I see it.

3. Elias Pettersson — As I wrote last week, I’ve recently converted from the “it’s an extended slump, he’ll be fine” camp to the “I’m not sure I want to risk carrying that extension” camp. At the very least, the Canucks need to be having some brutally honest conversations about what the future looks like. And if they’re as concerned as I am, it could mean one of the only times in cap-era history that a player with this sort of name value is traded with a ton of time left on his contract — and no trade protection to keep him out of a market that would normally have trouble getting a superstar locked in. Is he still a superstar? Was he ever? That’s the question.

2. Brad Marchand — In one sense, Marchand is the deadline’s most obvious target: a tough, talented veteran with a ton of playoff history playing out an expiring contract on a team that’s probably missing the playoffs. He checks every box for a slam-dunk deadline move. But he’s also the captain in Boston and a lifelong Bruin, and has said he doesn’t want to be moved. For what it’s worth, Fluto thinks it could happen, and plenty of teams should at least be calling. If it does, it could be a big enough move to legitimately shuffle the contender ranks.

1. Mikko Rantanen — It’s the obvious pick. It also may be the easiest one to figure out and maybe the least likely to actually move. We all half-expected Rantanen to have signed a monster extension in Carolina by now, but it sounds like he’s not sure if he wants to make that commitment. That certainly adds some drama, but then you get to what happens if he decides he wants to test UFA. If that’s what he wants, you’d assume he becomes the rental of the deadline, one who’d be an all-in target for a contender that was lacking big-game firepower up front.

Except … well, that’s the Hurricanes, right? Unless Rantanen has a destination in mind where he’d be willing to sign an extension, I don’t think he moves. But if he does, it would be a league-wide game changer.

Road to the Cup

The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.

The highlight of the weekend was the Blue Jackets’ win over the Red Wings at Ohio Stadium. Between the spectacle, almost 95,000 in attendance and the touching tributes to the Gaudreau brothers, the whole thing was an unqualified success.

5. Edmonton Oilers (35-21-4, +22 true goals differential*) — They’ve been fading, and the other rankings have already dropped them down to 10th. I’ve got slightly more faith, partly because they finally got a win on Saturday but mainly because they still have time to add some goaltending help.

The big-name goalie list was just John Gibson for most of the year, but now there’s at least a chance Jordan Binnington could be in the mix, too. If so, that’s at least two options for the Oilers, not to mention somebody like Karel Vejmelka or another cheaper option who could be a 1B. The key question here is whether the Oilers are willing to go into another Cup-or-bust run with Stuart Skinner as their only real option.

I wouldn’t, but let’s see where Stan Bowman lands. Remember, they hired him to be the closer on getting this team over the top, and at this point, it seems clear which roster hole needs closing.

4. Florida Panthers (37-21-3, +29) — This admittedly may be the last time we can include the Panthers as the top five’s Atlantic rep, with the Lightning on fire and the Maple Leafs moving ahead of them. For now, I’m keeping them here based on two things. The first was Saturday’s 3-0 win over a good Flames team in which the final score flattered Calgary and the game took extra time to complete because the refs had to keep reviewing Dan Vladar saves to try to figure out how they were physically possible.

The other factor is the Seth Jones trade, combined with Matthew Tkachuk going on LTIR and potentially freeing up his cap space to go after yet another big name. It’s the Panthers, this is what they do.

3. Dallas Stars (39-19-2, +50) — The Stars have settled in as a fun team to watch this week, as just about everything seems to be in play. A big move for a big name? It could happen. Something smaller? Sure. Nothing at all? Given they already made their move for Mikael Granlund, it’s very possible. And of course, they’ll be watching to see what the Jets and Avs do.

2. Washington Capitals (38-14-8, +61) — The Alex Ovechkin watch sits at 11 goals to go, after he scored in Saturday’s 3-1 loss. He’s been hot for the last week and has now moved north of a 50 percent chance of breaking the record this year, according to Dom’s model.

1. Winnipeg Jets (42-15-4, +71) — Murat’s had a fun week, tackling some aggressive offers from the fan base and then suggesting a half-dozen smaller names that might fit. But now that the Jets have lost two straight for the first time since mid-January, I think we all agree they’re in a tailspin and need to trade for Sidney Crosby to salvage the season.

*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.

Not ranked: Tampa Bay Lightning — OK, I’m officially scared of them again.

To be clear, we did this once already this year, back in late December when the Lightning were coming off a stretch of six wins in seven games, and we were wondering if the league was sleeping on them. Then they lost four straight, all in regulation, and we all went back to sleep.

Well, I’m awake again, and you should be, too. The Lightning have won eight straight, including Saturday’s road win in Washington against the conference’s top team. That stretch also includes a win over the Oilers, plus a pair of wins over a Senators team that had almost caught Tampa in the standings. Now the bigger question is whether the Lightning can finish first in the Atlantic, passing Toronto and Florida and forcing those two contenders to face off in the first round.

That’s getting a little ahead of things, but only a little. For now, the story starts with Andrei Vasilevskiy looking like his old self for the first time in a while, giving up just three goals in his last four starts. Nikita Kucherov is pushing for another Art Ross, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel are providing support, and new Canadian national hero Brandon Hagel is on his way to a career year.

And now, all eyes turn to GM Julien BriseBois. He doesn’t seem to have many paths to a major deal, but that’s hardly stopped him in the past, including when he landed Hagel at the deadline in 2022. Is there room for another sneaky-good depth add, the kind that’s become BriseBois’s signature deadline move? There could be.

The bottom five

The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.

For what it’s worth, Kevin isn’t convinced the Flyers will be busy this week.

5. Pittsburgh Penguins (24-29-10, -46) — Yesterday afternoon’s loss to the Maple Leafs was drunk. Quick advice: If you’re going to try to move Karlsson, maybe hope the other team’s scouts weren’t watching this one.

Also, this stat has to be fake, right? Please tell me it’s fake.

4. Buffalo Sabres (24-29-5, -13) — They say they’re “right on the doorstep of where we want to go.” Then again, that’s where doormats go. Consecutive regulation losses have cooled off a hot streak that had seen them win six of seven, and they’ve got the Habs tonight before a rare chance to play the favorites when they host the Sharks tomorrow.

3. Nashville Predators (21-32-7, -49) — The sell-off has begun, and getting a second for Gustav Nyquist seems like decent value. The question will be whether Barry Trotz can do anything bigger or if we’re firmly into the territory of just riding out a miserable season.

Ilya Sorokin ended up getting credit there, but we need a term for plays like this that isn’t “goalie goal.” I’m open to ideas in the comments.

2. Chicago Blackhawks (18-35-7, -48) — I said on the podcast this week that I was finding it hard to imagine a scenario where there was a market for Seth Jones that didn’t involve the Hawks eating way too much salary retention for a team coming out of a rebuild. Apparently Kyle Davidson has a better imagination than I do because he got way more for Jones at just 25 percent retention than I thought was possible.

It’s still a setback in the rebuild, because the Hawks weren’t supposed to still be selling two years into the Connor Bedard era. Laz captures some of that frustration here. But as a standalone deal, I’m not sure how you don’t love this as a Hawks fan.

1. San Jose Sharks (15-37-9, -69) — Make it 14 losses in 15 games. They get the Leafs in Toronto tonight, and without a ton of deadline-week options that stand out, they’re quickly getting into “the season can’t end soon enough” territory.

Not ranked: Ottawa Senators — We’ve all heard that old cliché: The key to making the playoffs in the modern NHL is not going a full month between banking points.

To their credit, the Senators avoided that mistake, if only barely. Saturday’s win over the Sharks snapped a streak of five straight regulation losses, earning them their first points since Feb. 3. Even with the 4 Nations break in the middle of that stretch, it’s a tough streak to endure in a crowded race. And it made Saturday night’s visit from the lowly Sharks feel like a bit of a must-win in Ottawa, where the Senators were icing something close to a healthy lineup for the first time in a while. In a season in which they seemed like a lock just a few weeks ago, another loss would have been disastrous.

They took care of business, if only barely, needing a third-period comeback in a game they were outplayed in early. That means they can reset on a miserable month — one that saw the Blue Jackets and Red Wings blow by Ottawa for the wild-card spots while the Lightning ended any talk of third in the Atlantic being up for grabs. It’s pretty much wild-card or bust in Ottawa now, and bust can’t really be an option anymore.

The rest of the pre-deadline schedule is fun, serving up the Capitals tonight and the Blackhawks on Wednesday. That will certainly give GM Steve Staios a chance to see how his team fares against both ends of the spectrum. The question is whether there’s much he can do with that information due to his extremely tight cap situation. Given their recent history, the Senators should be aiming for some aggressive additions, but there’s a fair question about whether they realistically can.

Instead, this may be a week for Senators fans to grimace and hope none of the teams they’re battling for a wild-card spot make major upgrades. The good news is the Rangers seem to be selling and the Bruins might be too, meaning the Ottawa outlook could improve without them even adding a thing. But a big move by Detroit or Columbus — or both — could hurt.

Of course, maybe Staios has something up his sleeve after all, and can bring in at least a bit of help. We’ll see. For what it’s worth, the Senators host the Red Wings a week from tonight, and they get the Blue Jackets three times in the season’s final 11 games. The path back to the playoffs still has a long way to go, and the margin for error has dropped significantly. But remembering how to win was the first step, and they took it.